The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meets 5–7 October 2026. As of 27 September the repo rate is still 5.25%. A hike has not been announced. What has changed is the argument around the table, and the amount of spare cash in the banking system.
The polls do not agree — say that out loud
A Moneycontrol poll of 13 economists and treasury heads, published 25 September, found a majority expecting a 25 basis point increase to 5.5%, which would be the first hike since February 2023. A Times of India poll of a dozen economists the same week leaned the same way, with some houses pencilling 50–75 basis points over the rest of the financial year, not all of it in October.
An Informist poll was more cautious: a majority of its respondents still expected the committee to hold at 5.25% in October, even after August CPI rose to 4.82% from 4.45%. ICRA’s Aditi Nayar has said a hike could move into October if crude stays high enough to threaten pump prices; HDFC Bank’s economists, in that same survey, still saw a hold with a hawkish line.
Treat “RBI will hike” as a scenario, not a circular.
Liquidity already moved
Reuters reported on 22 September that surplus banking-system liquidity had fallen to about ₹4.92 trillion, down about 55% from a record near ₹11.16 trillion two weeks earlier. Bankers tied the drop to RBI bond sales (about ₹750 billion over the prior week), foreign-exchange swaps, and rupee defence, after a much larger-than-planned diaspora deposit inflow — reported around $133 billion — had flooded the system. Governor Sanjay Malhotra had already pointed to bond sales and FX swaps as tools.
For a borrower, tighter surplus liquidity can lift short-term market rates even if the repo rate is unchanged on 7 October. Your overdraft pricing does not wait for the press conference.
What a 25 bps move does to a small P&L
On a ₹50 lakh working-capital limit priced off an external benchmark, 0.25% is about ₹12,500 a year if the whole limit is drawn all year — roughly ₹1,000 a month. It will not sink a healthy shop. It will hurt a shop that is already using the limit to pay GST and salaries in the same week. The dangerous version is a stack: hike plus a slower debtor plus a dearer dollar on imported inputs.
What to lock before 5 October
- Write two cash weeks: repo unchanged, and repo at 5.5% with your bank passing it through on the next reset date. Do not assume the reset is the morning of the decision.
- List which loans are repo-linked and which are still on an older MCLR. They do not move together.
- If you import, separate the rate story from the crude and freight story. Informist noted Brent back above $100 as one reason some economists pulled a hike forward. Your forwarder invoice is the number that hits the bank, not the poll.
- Upload the latest statement into Wiserlytics so interest debits are visible before the meeting, not discovered at filing time. Household EMIs belong in WiserFin, not mixed into the shop book.
FAQ
Should I prepay a loan this week?
Only if the prepayment saves more than the cash you need for the next GST and payroll cycle. A 25 bps scare is a weak reason to empty the current account.
Is 5.5% decided?
No. Credible polls still disagree. Budget the hike as a stress case until the 7 October statement.
This is informational analysis, not investment or credit advice. Wiserdusk Blog.